Showing posts with label making decisions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label making decisions. Show all posts

Monday, June 1, 2015

Two Lessons from a 1979 Airliner Crash

I spent most of 1979 in the beautiful country of Finland. A couple weeks after returning to my parents' home in Fremont, California, on November 28, I heard some terrible news: 257 people were killed on a DC-10 sight-seeing flight out of New Zealand.

The DC-10 had collided with Mount Erebus, an active volcano that rises 12,448 feet above sea level in Antarctica. Here's a photo of some wreckage - and of the same aircraft a couple years before the accident in London:
Air New Zealand Flight 901.jpg

It was not pilot error, as was immediately assumed. It was not a mechanical failure. After extensive investigation what had happened became very clear. The night before the flight, the flight path was altered by two degrees. The pilots were not notified of the change, and instead of flying safely above McMurdy Sound, they were flying directly toward Mount Erebus.

2 degrees + hundreds of miles = 27 miles off course.

To compound the problem, this was Antarctica. Mount Erebus did not look like a mountain at all. The white of the ice blended into the white of the clouds in the sky. By the time alarms were warning that ground was rapidly approaching, it was too late. More on this story can be found here.

Lesson 1:
There are Mount Erebuses everywhere. They can be tough to discern until it is ever-lastingly too late.

Lesson 2:
Being off course by only a few degrees can put you on a collision course with the wrong destination.

Make good decisions!


Thursday, May 21, 2015

Big Decision to Make? Try My New Decision-Making Worksheet


I have created a Decision-Making Worksheet. With its roots in the Benjamin Franklin method (see below), it is an innovation of my own. You will find it on my LinkedIn Profile, in the Summary section.
I hope you find it helpful!

More About Making Decisions

Decisions are always about the future, and life pivots on them. Turn right? left? We will never know fully how life would be different today, had we turned a different direction in the past.

Some choices are small and inconsequential. On other choices our future prosperity and happiness may rest.

Here's the rub:
When consequences of an action are separated from that action by great amounts of time or space, it can be difficult, not only to predict the consequences, but to correlate the two later. In other words, when something great happens today, we may not fully recognize what we did (or what happened) that set that up. The opposite is also true: when something terrible happens, we may never fully recognize that it would never have happened had we not done x.

Benjamin Franklin innovated an oft-repeated decision-making tactic - the T chart. Picture a vertical line down the middle of a page, and a horizontal line across the top. On top of the left side, write "PRO"; on the top of the right side, write "CON". Then make a thoughtful list of pros and cons of a certain choice. Ben Franklin was a brilliant man, a self-made millionaire that was irreplaceable to the founding of the republic known as the United States of America. His advice remains useful today.

Today, more is possible. It should be easier to connect the  dots between cause and effect - both to understand the past, and to shape the future. Today we have lots of specialized expertise, and we have social networks that can collect and gather collective wisdom. What if I created a site where people can input their own stories and dilemmas, and receive that crowd-sourced wisdom.

hmmm....